If anyone is curious in listening to someone who knows what they are talking about with respect to the problems in the economy, you should check out what this man has to say. He doesn’t tackle the entire issue, but he covers a good chunk of the problem with a great deal of accuracy. If you want the executive summary just head to the bottom for the advice. In short, statistical models are inadequate in predicting the frequency and magnitude of extreme events in financial markets (for several reasons), and a modified approach and greater redundancy is necessary for survival.
If you are looking for a living breathing proof of concept, look no further than Mr. Buffett’s investing strategy, and ask yourself if you think it is an accident that Berkshire has a lot of extra coin right now.